Jumat, 11 September 2015

6 important forex event next week

We all know that next week is going to be an important one for the financial markets because the Federal Reserve will decide whether the U.S. economy is strong enough to warrant the first rate hike in 9 years. However that is not the only market moving event risk on the calendar. In fact, the calendar is so jam packed with data that we can be assured of a pickup in volatility that will translate into big moves in the forex market. If you are trading currencies next week, here are the 6 things that you need to know:

There is a lot of important event in the financial market next week because US Central Bank also known as The FED will be decided to hike interest rate for the first time in 9 years or not. If Federal Reverse think thats USA economy is strong enough they will hike interest rate. But thats not the only major event thats will make market really volatile there is another big event to next week, here are 6 things that you need to know :

1. Current U.S economic condition is very important but its not be the only major event thats will drive the market next week. Current U.S economic performance should make the Federal Reverse to raise interest rate because :
Unemployment rate fallen to level which is full employment.
  • Wage is rising
  • House market condition is stable
  • Manufacturing and service sector is expanding
In this condition maintaining zero interest rate policy is not suitable, and its the right time to increase interest rate.
But The Fed does not operate alone in international equities, dovisness of ECB and another central bank will make Janet Yellent difficult to make the decision. Basically from bloomberg survey 60% of economists are still looking for the FED to raise interest rate, but the Federal Reverse Fund futures is only a 30% to move its.

2. There are to major bank thats will make anouncement before FOMC rate decision, BOJ Bank of Japan and SNB Swiss National Bank. SNB will meet quarterly and they consistenly talking down the currency. Bank of Japan could either increase QE (Quantitative Easing) or their willingnes to do Quantitative Easing. In the first half of this year Japan economic condition is recovering and further Quantitative easing is not necessary, but slowdown and depreciation of Yuan China make japan economy worsened significantly. If BOJ talk to increasing stimulus YEN will be depreciate and USD / JPY will be spike higher.

3. In the weekend there is some Chinese daa will be released. China retail sales and industrial production number. Cinese has officialy assure thats they will achieved 7% growth in 2015, despite their economy is slowing down. But stability on the equities is extremely important especially if they intervene their currency, if they do this there will be nasty surprise in the market.

4. There are consumer price , employment and retail sales data scheduled for rellease from UK. Current UK economic condition is stable.

5. The New Zealand dollar is drop to multi year lows after Reverse Bank of New Zealand cut rate 25bp, and they also warned further easing is likely. The New Zealand dollar could extend its losses next week as trade deficit expanding in second quarter and retail sales dropping sighnificantly

6. The best performing currency past week was Australian dollar. Better employment data dan strong copper price, AUD/USD enjoyed very nice recovery. But with speak and another australian data reversal maybe occurs. The slowdown of Chinese economy can trigger slowdown on economic data can affect Australian domestic economy. Any hint of dovisness and further easing can erase recent gains on AUD.