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Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
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Canadian housing starts rose a stronger than expected 7.3% to 205,900 annualized units in September from the upwardly revised 191,900 units in August (initially reported as 184,600). Market expectations were for a more moderate 2.7% increase to 189,500. The gain in September partially reverses the unexpectedly large 10.2% drop in August (previously reported as a 9.7% drop; July housing starts were upwardly revised to 213,600 from 204,500 previously) and was driven by a jump in the volatile multiples component.
The strength in housing starts in September was driven by a 14.2% increase in the urban multiples component to 118,000 annualized units. The increase partially unwound August’s sharp 16.1% decline. The rural start component saw a 1.5% increase to 20,000 annualized units while urban singles starts fell 1.5% to 67,900 annualized units, the category’s lowest pace of construction activity since May.
Extremely strong gains were seen in the Atlantic region (47.0%),
The unexpectedly large increase in housing starts in September, combined with upward revisions to both July and August, gives a quarterly pace of 203,800 annualized units for the third quarter of 2011. This represents a 5.9% increase over the pace seen in the second quarter of 2011 and marks the highest level of new residential construction activity since the third quarter of 2008. This is consistent with our expectation that the residential investment component of real GDP grew at a solid clip in the quarter and provided a boost to overall growth.
David Onyett-Jeffries, Economist, RBC Economics
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